Dear Sir/Madam,

Please find below a submission to the Ministerial Inquiry into Public
Passenger Transport.

I'd like to point you to an oil industry paper warning of a dramatic decline
in Australian oil production, after a peak in 2000. This happens in the
context of predictions by many oil scientists, including Princeton Professor
Emeritus Kenneth S. Deffeyes, that the world is facing its peak of oil
production some time in the next decade, followed by dramatic and permanent
increases in oil prices. Below are some quotes and a reference:

"- Projections by Australian Government forecasting agencies indicate that
Australia is facing a rapid decline in liquid petroleum production over the
next decade. Liquids self-sufficiency is expected to decline from an average
of 80-90% over the past decade to less than 40% by 2010.
- The economic implications for Australia are significant including a rapid
deterioration in Australia's trade deficit on liquid hydrocarbons (from a
surplus of $1.2 billion in 2000/01 to a projected deficit of $7.6 billion by
2009/10).
- Declining production over the next decade appears inevitable. However,
options to reduce the longer-term decline are available. These will take
time to implement so urgent action is required".

World Oil Markets and the Challenges for Australia ABARE OUTLOOK
http://www.woodside.com.au/NR/Woodside/investorpack/SG3682_3_ABARE.pdf

They also acknowledge the peak of *world* production, especially outside the
Middle East, which would lead to sharp price increases. They raise issues of
Balance of Trade, energy security, and government revenue.

This is no obscure, nutty conspiracy theory. It has been covered by sources
such as the Australian Financial Review (where I first came upon it), the
ABC, the Sydney Morning Herald, The Economist, the CSRIO, New Scientist.

In the context of these studies and your inquiry, I'd like to strongly
suggest the following ideas:
- Link Parramatta to the Parramatta-Link. I am furious that the NSW State
government is raising questions over the full implementation of the
Parramatta Link. The Link needs to be completed as soon as possible, so as
to make Parramatta a truly second CBD and take out some of the demand on
transport to Sydney CBD. At the very least, you could build the section
between Parramatta and Carlingford as a first stage. This would connect the
Carlingford line with a major CBD and a much better interchange station than
Clyde.
- Introduce more flexible ticketing. For example, you could have 'travel
tens' for train, with a good discount. You could have a 'travel 50' with a
bigger discount. This charges users only for the trips that they use, while
giving them a discount and an incentive for having a long term relationship
with CityRail. This is good for the increasing number of people working
casually or part time (including many women and young people) and those
working from home some of the weekdays. It also reduces transaction costs.
- Place a moratorium on the building of motorways. This money (and energy)
should be used to build railway lines and cycleways.
- Build light rail lines instead of transitways. We need to use electricity
instead of diesel or gas.
- Integrate cycling with public transport, rail in particular. This is a
great combination since bikes drastically increase the reach of the train by
increasing the 'customer base' around a station.
- We need better bike storage in trains. Unfortunately, it looks like the
new Millenium trains have none in spite of many requests from cyclists.
- We also need more storage lockers at station. These need to be in a good,
well-lit position.
- Cycleways to train stations need to be improved to allow people to get
there safely and quickly.
- Support long term tickets, with a good discount - they're the key
customers, so reward them!
- Compensate people travelling while trackwork is going on, with a discount
for the next train ticket. Weekends are a time when people who don't use
trains may try it, and trackwork is a bad experience for them to go through.
THey'd never be convinced - it's very bad merchandising.
- Parramatta - Sydney Link. I think there is also a need for a direct,
underground link between Parramatta and the Sydney CBD. This link would
greatly increase the capacity between these two major centres. It would
further promote Parramatta as Sydney's second CBD, a goal of the State
Government.
- Analysis of oil price, supply, and risks over the next 20-50 years should
be a part of all transport infrastructure planning and design. The prices
and supply of oil will have a crucial effect on car traffic flows, demand
for public transport, and costs of building infrastructure (it takes much
energy - oil - to dig tunnels and build bridges).

Regards,

Martin Olmos
[Name and Address supplied]

-----------------------------------------
More reading:
A collection of papers, news articles, from a cycling perspective:
http://camwest.pps.com.au/projects/oil.html

Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, by Kenneth S. Deffeyes,
Princeton University Press. Deffeyes is Professor Emeritus at Princeton
University, and a geologist with extensive personal experience in the oil
industry.
http://pup.princeton.edu/titles/7121.html

Free sample chapter (a good overview):
http://pup.princeton.edu/chapters/s7121.html

Many more articles and resources at:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm (an overview)

Colin Campbell (ASPO) discussing oil depletion
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/INTERVIEWS/COLIN.CAMPBELL/Colin.Cambell.200
2-12-18.php

http://hubbertpeak.com

The world oil production peak issue has recently been raised in ABC Radio
National's The Business Report, of all places. The quotes below are from a
German Scientist at the recent Broome International Hydrogen Conference:

"The car manufacturers I think have understood that they depend to 99% on
petrol. That petrol probably will not be as cheaply available in the future
as it has been in the past, due to very simple facts. It looks like we go to
the maximum of cheap oil production world-wide, and secondly we have a lot
of emerging countries like China, India, Indonesia, Latin America; who get
motorised, and it's not very likely that they will get motorised on existing
cheap available petrol fuel to be made available in a timely manner.
"So those car companies over the last five, six years, have realised that
hydrogen can be a way out, and simply due to the fact hydrogen has the
maximum feedstock flexibility. You can produce it from fossil sources, but
you also can produce it from all renewable sources".
Hydrogen Use Conference Held in Broome (ABC Radio National - Business
Report)
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/talks/8.30/busrpt/stories/s866025.htm

Have you wondered why all the major car companies are throwing so much money
at producing 'hybrid' cars (Toyota sellls its Prius at a big loss), when
there's no government mandate to do this, and there's none in sight for the
medium future? Because they're nice? Because they like the environment? Or
because they expect oil prices to increase significantly in the next decade?
Hybrid and fuel cell cars are a way out - you can still use the oil delivery
infrastructure we have, we'll just be buying less petrol at much higher
prices.

Please note also the very important point that Hydrogen is an energy
*carrier*, not a source. The best energy source we have (particularly for
transport) is the cheap to produce oil that is close to peaking.

Other ABC shows that have mentioned this issue are:

Transport (ABC Earthbeat,12/09/98)
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/earth/stories/s13083.htm
"What I think we have to realise is that the world is entering a new era in
the next century we are sort of leaving what's called the golden age of oil
and we're entering a period where world oil production is going to peak and
world oil production will then be in decline. And what is going to happen is
the price of oil is going to escalate. There will be manoeuvering at a
political level between countries to secure oil supplies and it is the
potential actual conflict in the Middle East as this manoeuvering takes
place. What is going to happen is China, being a large country, is going to
come head on in competition with all the other big oil consumers around the
world to try and get their share of oil. It simply will prove, I believe,
just far too expensive and far too problematic to secure that level of oil
just to run automobiles around cities very wastefully".

Mobile Metropolis Forum (ABC's Comfort Zone, 1/12/01)
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/czone/stories/s429813.htm
"Car dependence is oil dependence, and when fuel goes up the value of fringe
properties immediately goes down. The onset of the world peak in oil
production, which is now quite clear, is with us, and increased dependence
on Middle Eastern oil is there. Suburbia therefore has a long-term question
mark over it, and particularly after September 11".

Hydrogen Economy (ABC Radio National Breakfast, 31/10/02)
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/talks/brkfast/stories/s715290.htm

Regards,
[Name and Address supplied]